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Main Website >>Investment Management / Alternative Investment >>Blog >> The Stock Market Dropped Yesterday Because It Did

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Roger Nusbaum, Chief Investment Officer, YOUR SOURCE FINANCIAL (RIA)

The Stock Market Dropped Yesterday Because It Did
Wednesday, October 19 2011 | 08:55 AM
Roger Nusbaum
Chief Investment Officer, YOUR SOURCE FINANCIAL (RIA)

This appears to be the market we have right now, it was up on Friday just because and that was the same reason why it was down yesterday. I say this not to point out something new as it has been going on for a while but simply pointing out that this is what the market is giving us.

As a matter of investment philosophy this is an environment where I would rather try to shave off the peaks and troughs as the market seems intent on grinding around in the same range. The intent would be to go down less if the SPX goes back down to 1100 as we went up less as the market went from 1100 to 1200 the last time.

One relevant point I may not have conveyed adequately is that while I took defensive action consistent with how we always do it, I disclosed the various trades made along the way, and I do believe a recession is in the cards I do not believe the stock market action will be anywhere near as bad as late 2008/early 2009. We have been in the slogging through phase for a while and I think that will continue. A low from here of 900-1000 might sound terrible but it is obviously nowhere near SPX 666. The 900-1000 range is not meant to be a prediction so much as trying to have some expectation of worst case magnitude. Obviously I could be wrong and if we get to 900 or 700 then, as I have said before; however much defense we'll have taken by then we will wish we had more--human nature.

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