The very long term relationship between the gold miners and the price of bullion has not been one of perfect price correlation. This is because the producers unlike bullion have “issues” such as exploration risk, political risk, environmental risk and cost risk. However the producers under the right conditions can be a leveraged way to trade in and out of the precious metals complex.
During the early stages of gold’s secular advance (2000 through 2003) the gold miners outperformed the price of bullion. In the mid stages of the secular advance (2004 through 2008) the price of bullion outperformed the gold miners. Now we seem to be getting into the mature stages of gold’s secular advance and there is growing technical evidence via shorter term spreads that the gold miners will once again return to out perform.
There was a comment on some old post of mine from Seeking Alpha where the reader questioned the gold in the vault for the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). He said something like if you want your gold, will it be there and I think he was implying the same for the other physical gold ETFs. We own GLD for our clients.
This line of thinking is far from original, this has been a matter of doubt for a while with some people. I'm not sure what the origin for this is and I suppose it doesn't really matter the origin, there are people who do not believe there is the proper amount of gold in the respective vaults.
Chances are there is no convincing someone who believes the vaults are deficient that the correct amount is there. This is very simple however. Do you believe the gold is in there? I think this is a straight forward yes or no question. It is for me, I believe it is in there without hesitation. You either think it is there or you don't. If you don't then you clearly should not even consider owning the fund. There is no need to take on this type of worry in your portfolio. I have zero doubt the correct amount is there and so we own the fund.
People seem to get very worked up about this which is ok I guess other than it seems like wasted negative energy. Perhaps there is something similar with my opinion about Chinese reverse mergers. While I certainly don't think all of them are frauds the potential goes up in this realm and I simply don't want to take on that type of worry/risk. Simple avoidance without negative energy. This makes investing and life in general much easier.