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Roger Nusbaum, Chief Investment Officer, YOUR SOURCE FINANCIAL (RIA)

ETFs Jump In It
Tuesday, March 22 2011 | 03:31 PM
Roger Nusbaum
Chief Investment Officer, YOUR SOURCE FINANCIAL (RIA)

If you didn't hear, Index IQ is coming out with a global small cap agribusiness ETF that will have ticker CROP. It is supposed to start trading today.

About all I could glean for now about the make up of the fund is that it will hold stocks from a lot of different countries, no stock will exceed 10% (subject to rebalancing) and 30% of the fund will be in crop production and farming. We'll see what that means perhaps as soon as later today but this could be about a close as we get to a farmland ETF.

There are all kinds of plantation stocks trading in Asian markets and a couple where the plantations are in Asia but the stocks list in London. These are not easy to trade and if the fund captures that then this stands to be meaningful and also have the potential to look much different than Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) that we own for clients.

Emerging Global filed last week to dramatically increase its India offerings with sector funds that correspond to the ten big SPX sectors. They already have India covered with infrastructure and small cap. India has become a tougher market to own, fundamentally. A few years ago it seemed like anything India went up, this was also the case with Chinese stocks. As is often the case the theme has evolved and success requires being more selective.

Long story short I want no part of financials or telecom in India. The other sectors are all at least maybes. Any broad large funds will have exposure to those two sectors, the EG Shares India Small Cap Fund (SCIN) doesn't seem to have any telecom but does have some financials in it. The consumer space is very promising from the top down but buying that fund would depend on what was in it. I think utilities is kind of a sector for the future as there are things like hydroelectricity but the electricity infrastructure seems fairly primitive for now. The industrial and materials sectors will obviously capture the infrastructure needed as well the actual infrastructure fund.

At some point I expect we'll add India across the board as we had it quite a few years ago and it would be nice to have choice at the sector level as individual stocks from India are a little tougher to access.

WisdomTree now has an Asian bond ETF and it avoids Japan which is a plus. I wrote about it for WisdomTree has a Latin American bond ETF in the works which could also be very interesting unless it is 40% Mexico or something.

Yesterday I stumbled across a Brazilian hydroelectric company called AES Tiete (AESAY). I don't know much about it yet but where there is at least one in Brazil, India and a couple in China I'm thinking there are several others around the world--maybe enough for an ETF? Alternative energy is a volatile space but I think it makes more sense to consider when the alternative energy comes from the utility than when it is dependent on the end user retrofitting their home.

Maybe we can add this to the list of ETF ideas we've compiled over the years which includes toll road, air and sea ports, cement companies and publicly traded exchanges.

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0 Comment | Add Comment(s) | ETFs, Indexing, Emerging_Markets, Energy, Agribusiness, Asia,

Bill Carrigan, Founder, GETTINGTECHNICAL.COM

The Red Hot Energy Sector
Monday, March 07 2011 | 02:06 PM
Bill Carrigan

I acquired the shares of Encana, Suncor and Precision Drilling six months ago when the TSX Energy Index was in mid 2010 one of the worst performing sectors. At that time the “hot” sectors were Gold, Heath Care and Telecom. There were no investment sheep in the energy complex last summer and so I helped myself to the all-you-can-eat energy buffet. How the energy sector is enjoying a bullish stampede thanks to the crude risk premium due to the uncertain outlook for the larger crude producing Arab states.

I have always believed that when the sheep are hungry you should feed them. Now so far I see no reason to sell all of my energy positions but, I am reducing and moving the proceeds into another sector that the investment sheep are avoiding – the TSX Financial Sector. The sheep are avoiding the obvious crude risk losers like the airlines, transport companies, non-essential retail stores and travel to include fast food, hotels, theme parks and gaming. I think the Canadian Banks are winners either way if the crude risk trade either ON or OFF. Either way I like the Baa, Baa, Banks.

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Bill Carrigan, Founder, GETTINGTECHNICAL.COM

The 'Echo' Tech Boom
Friday, February 18 2011 | 10:54 AM
Bill Carrigan

As noted before our anticipated A-B-C correction is postponed as the U.S. FED continues to throw dollars at the capital markets with QE causing the U.S. to export food inflation which will likely end with a bubble. The hot commodity space has pushed the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity index above the pre-crisis 2008 peak. Don’t let the hot commodity space distract you from other opportunities out there

Did you know that the Nasdaq 100 index is also trading above the pre-crisis 2008 peak?

This recovery beats the Dow Industrials, the Dow Transports, the S&P500, the TSX Composite and the Russell 2000 and the red hot TSX Small Cap Index. Our monthly chart of the Nasdaq 100 displays the first technology boom & bust of the late 1990’s and now the second or “echo” boom. Note the break up from that huge 2008-2010 inverse Head & Shoulders bottom.

The recovery price target of 2860 is 61.8% retracement of the first boom and bust. That gives us about 20% upside from here – have fun but be nimble

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0 Comment | Add Comment(s) | Commodities, Indexing, Inflation,


The Power of Mean Reversion
Monday, February 14 2011 | 01:53 PM
James Picerno

The more you look at it, the larger it looms. Yes, rebalancing is an old idea—buy low, sell high. But it's forever new for at least two critical reasons. One is simply bound up with the recognition that rebalancing works, or at least it has a long history of working by enhancing return while keeping a lid on risk. But it's not always clear what constitutes "optimal" rebalancing, or even if such a state of financial nirvana exists. That keeps analysts turning over rocks in search of progress.

As for real-world results, much depends on the definition of rebalancing. Factors such as timing, the composition of portfolio assets, and the rules that guide rebalancing activity vary quite a bit. Accordingly, so too does the degree of risk from rebalancing strategies. Yet it's also true that rebalancing in one form or another is behind a number of the new-fangled attempts to mint alpha.

The rise of rules-based indexing products in particular rely on rebalancing, even if that's not always clear. Some products emphasize technical signals, for example, that offer insight on when to rebalance. Other funds focus on changes in accounting-based metrics, such as sales, earnings, etc. But at the heart of many strategies is a common denominator: rebalancing.

Some of this bleeds over into other risk factors, which can blur the lines for deciding where rebalancing's influence ends and something else begins. But no matter how you dress it up, rebalancing is the foundation for most strategies that have a decent chance of delivering alpha over the long haul. The lesson applies to many strategies within a given asset class, and it's true for most multi-asset class strategies.

For the latter, efforts at earning alpha by dynamically managing a set of betas range from the routine to rocket science. But you don't need to a Ph.D. in engineering to earn a modest premium over a passive asset allocation. What you do need is a fair amount of backbone to buy out-of-favor asset classes and sell the winners. That's a dangerous pursuit with individual securities, but history and a small library of empirical research suggests this is a worthy strategy for most investors at the asset class level.

As a review of the possibilities, consider how the major asset classes stack up against one another in recent history and how those returns compare to some simple forecast-free rebalancing strategies (see table below). Note the wide range of return results over the past five years within markets, ranging from a 1% annualized return for a broad mix of commodities up to nearly 10% a year for emerging market stocks. Holding all asset classes in a passive, unmanaged mix in weights that approximate their respective market values earned 4.6% a year (BIR Global Market Index). If you rebalanced this mix every December 31 back to the allocation from the previous year, you earned more: 5.7% . Equally weighting the same portfolio by rebalancing to equal weights every December 31 did even better, delivering 6.7% a year. By comparison, the U.S. stock market returned an annual 2.5% over the past five years, based on the Russell 3000.

The lesson is that by diversifying broadly and dynamically managing the mix in a simple but straightforward manner, you can earn competitive results. That's hardly a secret. As I explain in some detail in Dynamic Asset Allocation, the finance literature has been telling us no less in recent decades.

Results will vary, of course, although a fair amount of the variation is under your control. If you can stomach more than average risk, you might consider an aggressive rebalancing strategy. Instead of mindlessly rebalancing on pre-set calendar dates, you can be more opportunistic by taking advantage of volatility as it comes. Rebalancing in the fall of 2008, for instance, rather than waiting for the markets to calm down. You might also rebalance in something more than mild form, or more frequently, or allocate among a more granular definition of asset classes.

In fact, the possibilities are endless for boosting the rebalancing bonus, but so too are the risks. Earning higher returns by systematically adjusting asset weights isn't a free lunch. You have to be willing to assume a higher risk than the average investor. The main hazard is linked to mean reversion in prices. History shows that this phenomenon tends to persist over time, particularly with broad asset classes. But there's always a question of whether it'll prevail the next time, or how soon prices will revert to their mean after a large change in the market. Such questions help explain why most investors find it hard to rebalance when market volatility is high. But that's why the expected return from rebalancing looks so rewarding.

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0 Comment | Add Comment(s) | Mean_Reversion, Rebalancing, Indexing,

Michael Johnston, Managing Director, ETF DATABASE

How To Implement An Effective Rebalancing Plan
Monday, February 07 2011 | 03:52 PM
Michael Johnston
Managing Director, ETF DATABASE

With all the media coverage of the leveraged ETF controversy that has been brewing over the past several months, it is becoming increasingly difficult to separate the facts from the fiction. As firm after firm bans the use of these funds, a growing number of investors are unable to utilize leveraged ETFs. For those who do retain the ability to use these funds, the horror stories of return erosion and flood of lawsuits might cause even the most sophisticated investors to steer clear. But while the dangers of leveraged ETFs (if used by those who fail to understand their risk profile) are very real, the potential upsides can be equally spectacular.

Of the countless misconceptions about leveraged ETFs, perhaps the most damaging is the notion that the returns on these products become wildly unpredictable when held over multiple trading sessions, due to the daily compounding of returns. While this can occur in certain markets, investors can implement a fairly simple process to ensure that leveraged funds will track the target multiple of their benchmark over longer time periods.

Most traders move in and out of leveraged ETF positions within a single trading session, as the objectives that they use these funds to accomplish are short-term in nature. But an increasing number of advisors have begun using leveraged ETFs over extended time periods to generate amplified returns on trends that may not play out in a single trading session. Since leveraged ETFs compound daily returns, returns over multiple trading sessions can often result in unpredictable returns, particularly in seesawing markets. But by using a relatively simple rebalancing plan, advisors can increase the likelihood that returns on leveraged ETFs will closely correspond to an intended multiple of the related index.

Leveraged ETFs 101
Leveraged ETFs use complex financial instruments, such as swaps and futures, to magnify the daily returns on a benchmark. For example, the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) seeks to provide daily returns corresponding to 200% of the daily return on the S&P 500 Index. If the S&P 500 rises 1% for a single trading session, SSO should be expected to rise by about 2% (and it often does, as demonstrated in this feature).

Because leveraged ETFs seek to amplify daily returns, these funds reset their exposure on a daily basis. It is for this reason that when held for multiple trading sessions, the return on the leveraged ETF may deviate from the multiple of the return on the underlying index, particularly in oscillating markets. A leveraged ETF increases its exposure as its price rises and decreases its exposure as its price falls, leading to potentially undesirable results in a volatile, non-trending market.

Not Rocket Science
Many analysts and journalists convey leveraged ETFs as a mysterious black box that implements strategies beyond the grasp of most investors to generate erratic, unpredictable returns. In reality, the concept behind leveraged ETFs is easy to understand, and the consistency with which the funds achieve their stated objectives is rather impressive. Leveraged ETFs reset their market exposure on a daily basis, meaning that they are generally intended to be short term investments.

How To Optimize Leveraged ETF Returns
Some coverage on leveraged ETFs is correct: the effects on a portfolio in certain markets can be devastating if used incorrectly. But if used correctly, these ETFs can be powerful tools that can allow advisors to “double down” (or triple down) on anticipated movements in a benchmark. Advisors shouldn’t necessarily be scared of investing in leveraged ETFs for multiple sessions, but they should do so only if prepared to monitor the performance closely and potentially implement a rebalancing plan.

Leveraged ETFs are appropriate only for a relatively exclusive universe of investors for two primary reasons. The first is that since these funds are designed to amplify returns, they are likely to significantly increase the volatility of any portfolio that includes them, which may be inappropriate for risk-averse investors. Second, these ETFs require daily monitoring, since their performance over multiple trading sessions depends not only on the change in the related benchmark, but on the path of that index during the relevant period. Investors without the time or resources to monitor leveraged ETF investments on a daily basis should stay away from these products. The “set it and forget it” approach may work for long-term buy-and-holding, but it won’t work with leveraged investing.

Rebalancing Plans
As discussed above, leveraged ETFs operate with daily returns in mind, so bull funds must increase their exposure as the underlying index rises and decrease exposure as the markets fall. As a result, in seesawing markets leveraged funds will tend to return less than the multiple on the underlying benchmark when held for multiple periods, because a losing session will come on the heels of an increase in exposure and vice versa.

Consider this hypothetical example:

Period Index Value Daily Index Return 3x Leveraged ETF Price Leveraged ETF Return
Day 0 $100.00 ___ n/a ___ $100.00 ___ n/a
Day 1 $106.00 ___ 6.0% ___ $118.00 ___ 18.0%
Day 2 $100.70 ___ -5.0% ___ $100.30 ___ 0.3%
Day 3 $105.74 ___ 5.0% ___ $115.35 ___ 15.3%
Day 4 $102.56 ___ -3.0% ___ $104.96 ___ 5.0%
Day 5 $106.67 ___ 4.0% ___ $117.56 ___ 17.6%
Day 6 $101.33 ___ -5.0% ___ $99.93 ___ -0.1%
Day 7 $110.45 ___ 9.0% ___ $126.91 ___ 26.9%
Day 8 $106.03 ___ -4.0% ___ $111.68 ___ 11.7%
Day 9 $114.52 ___ 8.0% ___ $138.48 ___ 38.5%
Day 10 $110.00 ___ -3.9% ___ $122.11 ___ 22.1%

As shown above, the market rises 10% over a 10-day period, but a hypothetical 3x leveraged ETF tracking the benchmark would only rise 22.1%, or about 2.2x the return on the index. Depending on the level of volatility and period in question, returns on leveraged funds can deviate even further from the multiple on the underlying benchmark (note that on Day 6 the leveraged ETF had actually generated a negative return when the underlying index is up).

Again, since leveraged ETFs operate with daily returns in mind, their performance over multiple trading sessions can digress from the multiple on the underlying benchmark.

Rebalancing Is The Key
Contrary to popular belief, leveraged ETFs can be used to generate amplified returns over an extended period of time. But they can’t do it alone. (i.e., a “set it and forget it” approach won’t do the trick.) By implementing relatively simple rebalancing strategies, leveraged ETF investors can more closely approximate an amplified return on leveraged ETFs over multiple trading sessions.

By their very nature, bull leveraged ETFs increase exposure following increases in the benchmark index and decrease exposure when the index declines (as shown above). In order to achieve leveraged results beyond the short term, however, investors want to do the exact opposite. As the underlying index increases, advisors should reduce exposure by selling shares. As the index declines, advisors should increase exposure by purchasing additional shares. Consider the implementation of such a strategy assuming the same 10-day period:

Beginning ETF Investment Daily Index Return Ending ETF Value Daily Gain (Loss) Cash Withdrawal (Investment) Ending ETF Investment
$100.00 6.0% ___ $118.00 ___ $18.00 ___ $12.00 ___ $106.00
$106.00 (5.0%) ___ $90.10 ___ ($15.90) ___ ($10.60) ___ $100.70
$100.70 5.0% ___ $115.81 ___ $15.11 ___ $10.07 ___ $105.74
$105.74 (3.0%) ___ $96.22 ___ ($9.53) ___ ($6.34) ___ $102.56
$102.56 4.0% ___ $114.87 ___ $12.31 ___ $8.21 ___ $106.67
$106.67 (5.0%) ___ $90.67 ___ ($16.00) ___ ($10.67) ___ $101.33
$101.33 9.0% ___ $128.69 ___ $27.36 ___ $18.24 ___ $110.45
$110.45 (4.0%) ___ $97.20 ___ ($13.25) ___ ($8.84) ___ $106.03
$106.03 8.0% ___ $131.48 ___ $25.45 ___ $16.97 ___ $114.52
$114.52 (3.9%) ___ $100.98 ___ ($13.54) ___ ($9.02) ___ $110.00
Total Cash Flows $20.00

After the leveraged ETF rises on day 1, investors could reduce the position in the fund by pulling out two-thirds of the daily gain. After a decline on day 2, an additional cash infusion (again, equal to two-thirds of the daily loss) is required.

The strategy summarized above rebalances on a daily basis such that the ending exposure in the leveraged ETF is equal to the value of the index on that day. (Note that the far right column on the above table is equal to the second column on the first table.) After 10 days of volatile market returns, the investment in the leveraged ETF has increased from $100 to $110, and the advisor has taken a net amount of $20 from the investment, summing to a total return of $30, exactly equal to 3x the return on the index over the period.

The obvious oversight in this example is fees and expenses that would be incurred by such frequent rebalancing. This example is extreme in the sense that it implements a daily rebalancing strategy. The less frequent the rebalancing, the greater the tracking error and the lower the fees. In reality, it may be more sensible to set a “trigger point” at which point leveraged ETFs should be rebalanced (i.e., a deviation between the returns on the index and the return on the ETF). Unfortunately, there is no way around a trade-off between expenses and tracking accuracy when dealing with leveraged ETFs.

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Michael Johnston, Managing Director, ETF DATABASE

January ETF Flows: Hot Start to 2011
Friday, February 04 2011 | 04:35 PM
Michael Johnston
Managing Director, ETF DATABASE

In 2010 the ETF industry stumbled coming out of the gate, as more than $17 billion flowed out of exchange-traded products in the first month of the year. This year’s January figures showed an opposite result, as the latest data released by the National Stock Exchange shows that U.S.-listed ETPs took in more than $10 billion last month. The industry finished the month with $1.02 trillion in assets, an increase of about 1% over the prior month.

Reversing the trend of recent years, money flowed into domestic equity funds (inflows of almost $10 billion) and out of international stock ETFs (outflows of $1.3 billion) in January. Commodity ETFs also bled assets as investors fled physically-backed gold products, while fixed income funds saw big inflows.

After taking in more than $40 billion in 2010, Vanguard picked up where it left off in 2011 by leading all issuers with $4.2 billion in inflows. Not far behind was PowerShares, which surged higher thanks to big inflows into its flagship QQQQ (the fund raked in $2.5 billion of the firm’s total $3.2 billion during the month). iShares saw its market share drop under 44% after monthly outflows totaled more than $3 billion. First Trust continued an impressive run with nearly $500 million in January inflows. The firm’s ETF assets are up nearly 200% since last January, and market share has doubled over that period.

After losing more than $16 billion in January 2010, SPY saw solid inflows of $1.5 billion last month to inch up to more than $93 billion in total. Meanwhile, the second largest ETF continued to bleed assets, as $2.3 billion flowed out of GLD. The physically-backed gold SPDR has now experienced four consecutive months of outflows. And GLD continued to lose ground to its iShares competitor: The COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) also saw outflows, but of only about $300 million. iShares cut the expense ratio on IAU to 25 basis points last summer, and the fund has been gaining ground on its much larger rival ever since.


In another closely-watched head-to-head battle, Vanguard finally gained the upper hand in the emerging markets ETF space. VWO surpassed iShares EEM in terms of total assets for the first time; both funds track the MSCI Emerging Markets Index but VWO has a clear edge in expenses (27 basis points compared to 69 bps for EEM). VWO, now the third largest U.S.-listed ETF, took in $1.7 billion while EEM bled nearly $7 billion.

In addition to GLD and EEM, other funds experiencing major outflows included the Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM, $1.9 billion) and Vanguard’s MSCI Total Market ETF (VTI, $818 billion). Five ETFs took in at least $1 billion last month, including SPY, QQQQ, VWO, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA).

Several of the newer additions to the ETF lineup appear to be gaining considerable traction. Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) took in about $360 million, or nearly 150% of December assets. Also posting a big relative gain was WisdomTree’s Commodity Currency ETF (CCX), which raked in $91 million to push total AUM to $116 million.

Though the ETF industry remains top-heavy, the smaller and more targeted products out there continue to gain ground. In aggregate, the 20 largest exchange-traded products account for about 47% of total assets, but these same 20 behemoths saw outflows of about $3 billion last month.

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Vinny Catalano, President & Global Investment Strategist, BLUE MARBLE RESEARCH

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Robert Arnott
Friday, February 04 2011 | 04:31 PM
Vinny Catalano CFA
President & Global Investment Strategist, BLUE MARBLE RESEARCH

To most investors, including many investment professionals, indexes are constructs designed to track a defined area of the economy, usually via financial assets. Yet, "indexing as an investment concept" is far more prevalent than most realize.

In my interview with the co-author of " The Fundamental Index" and Chairman, Founder of Research Affiliates, we explore such areas as efficient indexing, the market inefficiencies that result from cap weighted indexes, and RAFI, the Research Affiliates Fundamental Index approach to investing. For those interested in understanding an investing methodology that large institutional investors such as PIMCO utilize, this interview will open the door to a fascinating and largely under-appreciated segment of the financial markets.

Beyond the Sound Bite podcast interviews can be found at the Blue Marble Research media blog. To listen to this interview,
Check out the interview here!

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Bill Carrigan, Founder, GETTINGTECHNICAL.COM

Cheeseburgers, KFC & Copper
Friday, February 04 2011 | 04:25 PM
Bill Carrigan

No doubt we have to credit the Chinese growth story for the big 2010 gains in the North American stock markets. The broadest measure of U.S. equities, the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index (formerly the Wilshire 5000) gained 15.34% in 2010, or approximately $2.3 trillion in market capitalization. The index has gained 44.99% since 2008. Most notable was the index gain of 23.35% during the third and fourth quarters.

Investors in the commodity space were the big winners with the price of crude, gold, silver, cotton, copper, uranium and potash all soaring in response to the China story.

Our chart displays two direct beneficiaries of the China story – the big fast food players McDonalds (MCD) and YUM Brands (YUM). Look at the price action over the past several weeks – down is the face of a late December rally the took most of the broader stock indices to 52-week highs. Clearly these Chinese consumer bellwethers are predicting a Chinese slowdown – if you love the copper / Chinese story MCD & YUM may give you indigestion.

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