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- Interest rate hikes and the prospect of a slowing economy: What to expect in 2017? What does this mean for land/house/condo values? Sales? Which markets will be hardest hit? What to expect on building supplies and labor costs?
- What’s the impact of the new Administration? The proposed tax changes? What can we expect from HUD? What else is on the regulatory/policy horizon that will further impact the land/homebuilding/condo markets?
- What is the latest on home mortgage availability/approval rates? Can homebuyers absorb interest rate increases? What is the home-buyer affordability 2017 outlook?
- Recent trends in international capital flows into the JV market: Drivers; volume; sweet spots; outlook
- Foreign home-buyers: Will the tapering off continue? Is the Asian buyer fading? What are notable trends? What for-sale residential product types/geos are still attracting interest?
- Are we in year 8 of a 7 year cycle? What are the market indicators? What can we learn from past housing cycles? Past economic cycles? Demographic trends?
- Are there cyclical changes that have become foundational changes in our industry?
- What are notable trends within the public vs. private builder markets? The land development market? The condo development market? Product size trends?
- What is the rate of new construction? What Eastern US markets are overbuilt vs. underserved within different residential product groups? Where is the capital for new development?
- What are the smart land buys for 2017? What is the demand for finished lots vs. entitled land? Land/lot prices/values: Where are they going? What are the determinants?
- Who’s buying and what’s selling? What is the uptake of first time buyers? Second home buyers? Foreign buyers? High-end/luxury homes vs. affordable housing?
- Is home price appreciation slowing down?
- Will GSE’s continue in their current form?
- What distressed opportunities are there to be capitalized upon?
W. Stephen Hagenbuckle
- What is your investment sentiment in the current climate? What types of deal/project/size/geo are you interested in? Are you primarily buying/building or selling/exiting? What returns are you targeting?
- How does an uncertain investment environment and current levels of pricing/valuation impact your decision-making processes on current investment opportunities? How are you underwriting?
- Financing/Hedging Strategies: With interest rates expected to rise, what changes are you making to your financing strategies? How are you addressing the proposed tax changes in deals?
- How to create investment opportunities in this currently disruptive market? Are the returns there for private debt?
- What for-sale residential products/geos will have the greatest investment opportunities for the next 2-5 years?
- The good, the bad and the ugly of JVs: Who is your ideal partner? Who is not? As an equity partner, what do you look for in an ‘ideal’ deal? How can prospective partners fine-tune their ‘elevator pitch’? What are red flags?
- Advice for the first time private equity user: Steps for going from syndication/friends and family to institutional/joint venture equity or a fund
- How are you viewing the current climate? Are you in a ‘wait and see’ mode? Are your investment criteria changing? Your decision-making rationale? If so, how/why?
- How are you viewing risk and translating that into your investment strategy and capital deployment?
- How are you addressing industry constraints (rising building supplies costs, labor costs/shortages, etc.) and margin compression in your strategy? How are you changing your business approach to best-position yourself in the current uncertain environment? Is it the right time to grow your business?
- Are focused on one product type or are you expanding into others? If the latter, what are some of the strategic/operational challenges in trying to capitalize on different market segments? How are you addressing?
- Is financing easy to come by? Who are your main sources? What are typical terms today? Interest rate hedging: What is your approach?
- Are you doing/considering pre-fab and modular construction? Why/why not? What will be the product types/geos to watch in 2017?
- Private equity JVs: When your fund/partner is at the end of their lifecycle - what next?
Christopher J. Wein
- What are you looking for in land investment today? What is considered a good deal at this stage in the cycle? Have the economics of deals changed over the past 12 months? If so, how and are you realigning your strategies as a result?
- What’s the latest on raw vs. entitled vs. finished lots? Urban infill vs. suburban lots? Are you starting to see distressed opportunities? What’s currently offering the best investment opportunities for land developers?
- Is $ chasing deals or are deals chasing $? Are you seeing increased competition for land deals from homebuilders?
- How is your appetite for risk these days? Are you more open or closed to riskier investments? Are your site selection and evaluation criteria changing as a result of the current climate? If so, how?
- Is demand for finished lots from homebuilders/condo developers up or down on last year? What trends are you seeing within the for-sale residential market?
- Equity & debt financing: Are capital sources finally opening up/requirements finally easing for land development? What are common deal terms that you are seeing? Are you optimistic that there will be a resurgence of capital as per the homebuilding markets any time soon?
- What notable trends can we expect to see within land development in 2017?
- How is the composition of the capital market for for-sale residential investments changing? What are the implications?
- Debt finance has been constrained for the last few years: Is it finally coming back? Who will fill the debt void? What can we expect in 2017?
- How are debt and equity providers now viewing for-sale residential investment opportunities?
- Will pullback and uncertainty from banks continue? If so, what does this mean for the cost of capital? To what extent will mezzanine help fill the financing gap with risk retention regulations now in place? Is it a lender or borrower market today?
- Are foreign investors still a dependable source of equity? What is attracting international money?
- With interest rate hikes expected, how are lenders approaching interest rate risk mitigation in financing strategies?
- Asset class/geo snapshot: What is/isn’t getting financing? Which geos are still healthy vs. which are a concern amongst capital providers?
In this session we explore how to source, and what it takes to secure, debt/equity financing for land/homebuilding/condo development and acquisitions. We compare finance options (private equity/funds, banks, private/niche lenders, EB-5, crowdfunding, family offices, foreign capital) and address:
- Capital provider hot buttons, typical costs, fees, timeframes, structures
- When one capital source may make sense over another for any given deal
- When equity is preferable to debt
- Sourcing capital providers
- How much equity do developers/builders need to put in?
- Project-level government finance
- Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing
- How are construction mezz loans/preferred equity deals now being structured? How much $ are borrowers having to put in? What types of development are being favored? In what locations? Is preferred equity the go-to structure for non-cash flowing assets today?
- What are the workout considerations and the inter-creditor issues for preferred equity and mezz construction deals/loans? What is the latest in protection in the case of a default?
- Which banks are doing construction mezz today? How has the landscape changed? Are construction deals being repriced?
- How big an opportunity is construction mezz/preferred equity in the current climate for non-bank lenders? Who are the new entrants in this market and how do they compare? Can we expect more brand-name developers to branch into preferred equity/construction mezz loans? Do such developers offer any advantages/disadvantages over other lender types for borrowers?
- Economics of the deal: Why active adult as an investment over other age-based for-sale residential product types?
- Comparing opportunities within different sub-product types within active adult - small, in-fill and with density
- What geos are currently underserved vs. oversupplied? What will be the areas to watch in the next 3-5 years?
- How are capital providers viewing active adult? What are common questions/concerns you are hearing specific to this product type? How are you addressing?
- Variations on a theme: How to set yourself apart from your competition?
- Key traits within active adult buyers: How price sensitive are they? What are they looking for in a residence? What are key premiums/options/amenities to offer baby boomer buyers?
- How to reach potential buyers? Assessing different channels/routes
Many secondary markets are exhibiting growing populations and above-average job growth. So, it’s no surprise that more capital is now going into these markets. However, after many poor investment decisions pre-crash, for-sale residential investors today are rightfully exhibiting greater caution.
- Definitions first: What’s considered a secondary market within the for-sale residential Eastern US market?
- What is the business case – in today’s volatile climate - for investing in riskier markets vs. investing in riskier residential assets in the best markets?
- Secondary market pricing/valuations today vs. pre-crash
- How to know which secondary markets are worth the risk?
- Comparing opportunities/risks in early vs. late booming markets
- What are the for-sale residential asset types to watch, and which to avoid, in secondary markets?
- Due diligence considerations specific to residential assets in secondary vs. primary markets
- JV partner/lender perceptions and expectations: Getting sign-off
- What can we learn from past cycles and past mistakes?
- How can builders address the emerging entry level buyer? Same as previous cycles or will product changes advance the industry?
- To what degree will potential interest rate rises impact entry-level buyer demand?
- Assessing the business case for homebuilders to invest in affordable housing
- Affordability and product design considerations: Modular and tiny homes; smart tech utilization
- Is the stigma of modular/manufactured housing lessening for end-buyers? How to address?
- Why is manufactured housing not given a normal mortgage to expand affordable housing? Is this likely to change in the near-term?
- Assessing the wants of key affordable housing buyer groups: First-time buyers; seniors; workforce/low income; students
- Financing: Sources; costs; terms
- Maximizing the benefits of economic incentives
- Increased density and inclusionary up-zoning
- Public-private level partnerships
Land entitlement is one of the biggest bottlenecks for homebuilders/developers. Arguably, it is the most value-enhancing stage of the development process but also carries some of the greatest risk. Procedural missteps are common, drastically impacting a project's value. This session welcomes executives to discuss their approaches to land entitlement and mitigating entitlement risk. Among the discussion points are:
- Perspectives on what constitutes major entitlement risks for common project types/situations
- Weighing entitlement risk to determine when it’s worth the gamble
- Best practices in working with municipalities and fast-tracking approvals
- Proactive steps to minimize delays during the entitlement process
- Assessing when a change of entitlement/use warrants the risk/time/expense involved
- Entitling land for master planned communities
As the continued pinch is felt across the industry, homebuilders, condo developers and land developers come together to discuss their approaches to managing costs and strategies for increasing revenue in this uncertain climate. The focus of this discussion will be on identifying key challenges to managing costs and trouble-shooting solutions; highlighting strategies/opportunities for increasing revenues; and pitfalls to avoid. Active participation and Q&A is encouraged from the floor.
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