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Our panelists, representing a mix of bearish and bullish perspectives, battle out the all-important question: Will the CRE bubble burst in 2017?
- Fundamentals first! Is the US economy headed for another downturn? Can the economy keep growing at its current rate? Assessing true fundamentals vs. CRE pricing
- The new Administration: Good, bad or indifferent for CRE investors?
- Interest rates: Will they remain low for the long term or spike in the near term?
- Brexit: To what degree will this increase capital flows to US CRE, particularly from the Middle East and Asia? What opportunities does it open/close in European CRE?
- China’s slowdown: How is it impacting the US CRE market?
- Oil in 2017 and its impact on CRE investment: Discuss
- The 2017 outlook for global economic/political instability/volatility: What will be the impact on CRE investment in the US and internationally?
- The Fed has warned of vulnerabilities building within CRE: What is your take on this? With CRE prices hitting historical peaks in 2016, what can we expect in 2017? With there still being a flood of capital and investors opting for safety, are we heading towards an asset/valuation bubble? Where are we in the cycle? Will cap rates go up in 2017? Is the CRE market in the ninth inning?
- What mini-bubbles are brewing and in which sub-markets? Tech? Apartments?
- What’s the overall CRE investment sentiment for the next 12 months and what factors are influencing this? Transaction volume: What to expect? What will be the main drivers/inhibitors in 2017? What are realistic IRRs for core/value add/opportunistic today?
- What impact is greater oversight from the SEC and the cost of regulatory compliance having on fund managers? How are they adapting?
- How much institutional capital is now out there for CRE and where is it coming from? What fund investment strategies are having a tough time raising capital? Which are attracting investors? Will foreign capital flows into US CRE continue at the same rate?
- Deal-by-deal structure or fund? Open-end vs. closed-end fund?
- Fund models: Where are they heading? Implications? What further trends can we expect?
- Exits: Will more funds go public this year? Manager M&A: Are we in a continued consolidation phase?
Warren de Haan
- GP alternative structure/co-investment flexibility & related fees
- GP indemnification, obligations and liability standards
- ERISA, UBTI, Dodd Frank, JOBS Act, CFTC Commodity Pool Operator & Volcker Rule: Compliance and exemptions
- Key principal/employees carried interest participations & time commitments
- LP/Preferred deferred promotes/catch up distributions, take control, most favored nation & advisory board rights
- Carried interest, asset management & other fees/fee waivers
- Pooled vs. deal by deal distributions, clawbacks and escrows
- Exit Strategy and default remedies
- Advisory board appointment/observer rights, self-help remedies
This session addresses the economic realities of different CRE deals today – new development, acquisitions, redevelopment, refurbishment - across asset types/markets. In analyzing the economics of these deals, and the approaches they took, we will also trouble-shoot key obstacles encountered, overall lessons learned and summarize key take-aways.
- Is now a good time to sell? Knowing when to sell/when to hold
- What’s selling/what’s not?
- Who is looking to buy? Foreign investors? 1031?
- What does it take to make your property attractive to a prospective buyer in the current market? How to position yourself?
- What are successful property marketing strategies today?
Directly after the dispositions roundtable CRE executives looking to buy/sell CRE have the opportunity to meet and exchange business cards in an informal setting geared towards making business connections.
- Is global/economic volatility causing you to realign your overall investment strategies? What is your current CRE investment sentiment and how are you viewing risk?
- What CRE investment strategies are you currently allocating funds to? Are you investing in secondary markets? Stepping outside the four main ‘food groups’? How are you viewing income producing vs. appreciation in value investment strategies? What are your expected returns in this market environment?
- Are REITs part of your real estate allocation? Real estate debt?
- Deal-by-deal; commingled funds; separate accounts; and/or direct investment?
- New/emerging managers: How much of a percent of the fund would you invest in? Due diligence processes/red flags that you look for? How can they get on your radar?
- How are you ensuring a continued alignment of interest with your GP(s)? What are current hotly debated/negotiated areas?
- To what degree are funds meeting your demands for increased investment transparency? A push for lower management fees? What more are you looking for funds to do?
- Can you share a recent example of a failed GP relationship and the reasons behind this?
- What is one piece of advice you would give to funds now in fundraising mode?
In a slightly different take on our large fund panel, our participants – some representing a bullish viewpoint, the others a bearish one – will debate their perspectives on CRE investment in 2017. Among the points to be discussed:
- Fundamentals may look good but what is your investment sentiment in the current climate? How does an uncertain interest rate environment and current levels of pricing/valuation impact your view on opportunistic vs. value-add vs. core investments?
- Is there a flight to safety? Are you in a ‘wait and see’ mode? How are you viewing risk and translating that into your CRE strategy and capital deployment?
- Are you primarily buying or selling? What is the next undervalued asset class/market that you are considering?
- What returns are you underwriting to? Will we see 20% returns again any time soon?
- Financing/Hedging Strategies: With interest rates expected to rise, what changes are you making to your financing strategies?
- How to create investment opportunities in this currently disruptive market?
Concurrent Sessions: Choose A, B or C
- How is the composition of the CRE finance market changing and what are the implications? Will we see a continued rise in peer-to-peer lending? Is foreign capital still pouring in? Is it a lenders or borrowers market today?
- With the CMBS market undergoing a radical shift, what will be the impact on finance from that channel? CMBS 3.0: What will this look like and how robust will this market be?
- With continued pullback and uncertainty in senior lending, what does this mean for the cost of capital? For the lenders who will be filling the void? To what extent will mezzanine help fill the financing gap with risk retention regulations now in place?
- With interest rate hikes expected, how are lenders approaching interest rate risk mitigation in financing strategies?
- The Wall of Maturities: What is the latest status?
- Who’s calling who?: Are the banks calling the shots/originating full stacks, or are the mezz/sub debt lenders calling the shots, quoting the whole stack and selling A Notes? Who’s buying these A Notes? What are hot buttons on structure/pricing for these A Notes?
- Senior mezz: Who’s buying? Who’s pricing tight vs. market? What groups are using leverage against senior mezz to increase their IRR?
- Asset class/geo snapshot: What is/isn’t getting financing? Which geos are still healthy vs. which are a concern?
This session will provide a roadmap of current and anticipated tax and regulatory change/focus – especially as a result of the new Administration - that will impact funds and real estate investments. In outlining these issues we also address what funds need to consider and how strategy needs to adapt as a result.
- Examining the Section 385 Treasury regulations and their impact on structuring
- FIRPTA: What impact has this had on foreign investment in US CRE in the year since enactment? How can real estate companies capitalize on investment opportunities created by the changes to FIRPTA?
- The new Administration and anticipated tax changes
- With increased oversight from the SEC, what is on their 2017 radar?
CRE tech is revolutionizing the way the industry does business – on both an asset level and a company level. From aggregating and analyzing data for more informed property investment decision-making to realizing energy savings and efficiencies in smart buildings, tech has shifted from being a cost-center to improving ROIs. In this session tech solution providers showcase their offering with the objective of illustrating the ROI that can be achieved. Q&A from the audience is encouraged and audience participants can vote on the solution they believe would add the greatest value to their business.
- How are the risk retention regulations impacting your business and how are you responding?
- With interest rate hikes expected, how are you approaching interest rate risk mitigation in your financing strategies? How are you underwriting at this point in the cycle? How are you remaining competitive and chasing yield?
- What types of borrower are more attractive today? Less attractive? Assets/geos/deal size? Fixed or floating: What are your customers choosing?
- What is your current take on risk? What is your overall willingness to lend today? What structures are necessary to have you involved in a deal? What equity must borrowers put into the deal?
- How are you looking at mezzanine finance, preferred equity and crowdfunding in deals today?
- Senior lenders – mezzanine lenders: Where does the balance of ‘power’ currently lie? What does this mean for borrowers?
- How are inter-creditor rights/agreements changing?
- Bank surcharges: Any impact?
- Draws, paydowns, reallocations
- Interest estimates, payments and allocations by deal
- Legal & structural latest
- As market volatility increases, should you increase your available credit? Drawdown your lines more?
- Long-term lines of credit
- Matching loan type and purpose
- Current rate options
With too much capital chasing too few deals within the ‘four food’ groups, more CRE investors have been exploring opportunities within alternative CRE asset classes, and with good reason. Business has been booming. How does the ROI of these asset classes and the economics of these deals compare to the traditional food groups? How is the capital raising environment for these asset classes? What is the level of LP interest and the availability of finance? Where are opportunities still prime for the picking, and where are markets perhaps becoming too frothy?
- Senior Housing
- Data Centers
The focus on small cap equity funds from traditional lenders, as well as some of the newer market entrants, is still lacking in the marketplace. In this session we explore how to source, and what it takes to secure, senior and mezzanine financing for CRE deals (acquisitions, new development and refinancings) between $1M-$50M. We also examine and compare alternative debt options for such deals: EB-5, Crowdfunding, Reg A+, family offices, foreign capital. In doing so we address debt provider hot buttons; typical costs, fees, timeframes, structures and when one capital source may make sense over another for any given deal.
This session examines the pros and cons of the different exit options open to funds in the current climate.
- Key decision points/issues involved in selecting an exit route
- Exit timing considerations
- Upfront planning
- Impact on fund economics
- LP/investor issues/considerations
- Tax planning, structuring and compliance issues
- Understanding processes, timelines and costs of the different exit options
- Learning from recent successes and failures
- Class A centers in secondary cities: The place to be? What opportunities remain in B/C locales? Worth the risk?
- How are fundamentals looking for Retail? Will 2017 be a year of growth? What are the latest trends impacting bricks and mortar Retail?
- With more high profile store closings in 2016, is the secondary mall in its death throes? Are owners repurposing? If so, into what?
- What opportunities/drawbacks does the seismic shift of Private REITs pulling back from Retail create within this asset class?
- Foreign capital pullback from Retail: What’s driving this retreat? What, if any, sources of capital are coming up to replace this? What is the overall financing environment for Retail?
- How to create triple net lease opportunities in Retail?
- Where will the savvy investor place $ in Retail in 2017?
We begin this session with an overview on the small-mid-sized fund market which will address key trends, drivers, adapting to greater regulatory oversight and overall performance levels. We then welcome small-mid-sized fund managers to outline how they are successfully carving their niche in CRE investment today. This session is intended to be interactive with direct participation from the audience.
- Finding your niche and deal sourcing
- Deal economics/IRRs
- Managing regulatory compliance
- Scaling your business
- Multi-family is still being priced strongly: How are fundamentals looking for this market in 2017?
- How are you currently positioned in the multi-family market? Particular product type/location? Are you looking to expand in the next 12 months? What are your long term strategies? Exit plans?
- Is the market oversupplied? Which regions/locations are seeing a slowdown vs. still experiencing growth in the different multi-family product types? What are your key criteria in selecting multi-family development sites? New acquisitions?
- Valuations are high: What does this mean for returns? What IRRs are you targeting and how?
- Who are your targeted tenants, why and how are you attracting them? Can your tenants absorb any potential rent increases?
- What opportunities exist in workforce/affordable housing? Which are the key markets for this product type?
- Mixed use strategy? Smart building tech? Other methods of adding value? To differentiate yourself?
- Are urban locations still the place to be? Will Millennials ever move to the suburbs? What strong suburban locations exist for multi-family?
- Financing multi-family: Tricky to do in the lower cap rate environment in CA? What creative approaches are you taking?
CRE executives who have successfully secured foreign capital from a variety of sources/for a variety of projects will lead this conversation. Active participation and Q&A is encouraged from the floor.
- Foreign capital: What are the options/main sources today?
- Is foreign capital right for all CRE deals? When should/shouldn’t it be considered?
- Assessing the impact of the strong US dollar on gaining access to foreign capital & EB-5 financing
- What US CRE assets/geos/markets are different types of foreign investor now favoring? For which is interest waning?
- Asian institutional investors and their return expectations
- EB-5: When to use? What have been your experiences? What are the advantages/disadvantages?
- How to source/access foreign investors? How to bring capital in and out in the most efficient manner?
- Tax structuring considerations for foreign investors and assessing changes to U.S. taxation of investments by non-U.S. investors under the PATH Act and FIRPTA
Panelists will discuss their approaches to carving out their place in the highly competitive CRE fund market. The focus of this discussion will be on addressing key challenges/trouble-shooting obstacles, managing risk, pitfalls to avoid and approaches to increasing odds of succeeding. Active participation and Q&A is encouraged from the floor.
- Before the launch; managing start-up and operating costs/timeframes
- Fund/investment structure/strategy; differentiation
- Failure to launch: What now?
Julia Boyd Corso
- What were the key drivers impacting/influencing office investment in 2016? What can we expect in 2017? Where does the office market currently stand in terms of new build/occupancy levels, etc.? How do overall fundamentals look for office investment this year?
- With core buyers pulling back in the suburban office market, does this create opportunities for value-add funds? Should any investor types be looking at the suburban office market over Central business districts (CBDs)? Which are the 2017 go/no go locales for suburban office/CBDs? Weighing the risk-returns of core/core+ vs. value-add vs. opportunistic office investments
- Traditional office vs. creative office: Does one typically offer greater ROI over the other?
- What are the workplace transformation trends that office investors cannot afford to ignore? How are shifting employment/work patterns continuing to impact investments in office? How are tenant profiles and requirements evolving for traditional and creative office space? What are the absolute must-have features/facilities in new office builds/redevelopments today?
- Leases/rents: Current trends and today’s most negotiated points; Can tenants absorb further increases in rent? When to increase rent vs. remain strictly competitive? Who are the ‘up and coming’ tenants to attract?
In this session we dissect recent successful and unsuccessful fundraising attempts with public/private pension plans, endowments, family offices, High-Net-Worth (HNW) individuals and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs.) The objective is to pinpoint ways CRE funds can increase their chances of success. Areas under discussion:
- Asset classes/markets
- Fund/deal structures
- Sourcing/marketing/pitching to LPs
Concurrent Sessions: Choose A or B
Is risk being properly priced? Is there a stretch for yield? What returns justify the risk? How to justify buying at the current pricing in your exit strategies? How to price risk at a project level? At a portfolio level? How to determine where to invest that will have the least negative impact on the risk spectrum?
Participants in this session discuss approaches and strategies for pricing risk and for devising a risk-adjusted approach to CRE investment in today’s environment. This is intended to be an interactive roundtable format where all participants are invited to be actively involved.
- Regulation A+: What it is and isn’t; Tier I offerings vs. Tier II offerings; who is the investor base?
- Reg A+: Is it working? What is the rate of filings? Can we expect an influx of new issuances in 2017? What can we learn from the experience of the first issuers?
- Reg A+ vs. Reg D offerings: How do they compare? What are the pros and cons of Reg A+ offerings?
- Timings, cost, required documentation, fees, structures, etc.
- Fundraising instruments/platforms; investor limits, qualifications and verification
- On-going disclosure & financial statements
- Liquidity events: Are Reg A+ offerings a stepping stone to an IPO? An alternative to an IPO?
- Issuer due diligence and compliance obligations
- Key federal and state securities law considerations
High-net-worth investors are estimated to have made approximately $3.2 billion in CRE acquisitions in the first half of 2016. What can we expect from these investors in 2017?
- Are you mainly looking at income producing or appreciation in value investment strategies? What are your return expectations in the current climate? Are you looking to increase CRE investment this year?
- Are you willing to take on CRE deals deemed too risky by institutional investors? How are you viewing risk today? What is your take on primary vs. secondary vs. tertiary CRE markets/assets?
- Funds, funds of funds, direct, deal-by-deal: Which is your preferred CRE investment route(s)? What do you see as the benefits/trade-offs? How much of a controlling interest are you looking to have? How much capital do you expect GPs to put in?
- What do you look for in a fund/fund manager? In an operating partner? What do you consider as red flags? How do you ensure interests are continually aligned?
- How can funds/operating partners get on your radar? What advice would you give prospective partners looking to do business with you?
- How did hospitality investors fare in 2016? What were the key trends from the past 12 months impacting investment performance?
- Is nervousness amongst some hospitality investor groups justified? How will key factors within the 2017 macro-economic outlook impact the investment performance of the different hospitality sector product types over the next year?
- Full service vs. limited service vs. budget vs. extended stay: What product types are experiencing the greatest uptick in investment and why? In which markets? Where are we seeing new build?
- Millennial Hotels: What can we expect from this product type in 2017? Is there still room to play in this market for new entrants? Are Millennials’ hospitality wants evolving?
- Brand vs. non-brand in 2017: Which way to go?
- What does today’s financing/fundraising landscape look like for hospitality developers/investors? Who are the key sources of debt/equity for new acquisitions/development/renovations? What are common deal terms/conditions/capital provider sentiment?
- What is ‘the next big thing’ in the hospitality CRE industry? What are the sub-sets of the hospitality industry to watch? The future value drivers?
Session participants discuss their recent JV experiences on CRE deals from their respective perspectives: Equity provider; operating partner; LP; lender and attorney. All scenarios discussed are real deals.
- Top 10 most heavily negotiated issues
- Stumbling blocks and how to address them
- Must-have documentation
- Partner/service provider selection
- Red flats and when to walk away
- “In hindsight”…. and key take-aways
GPs will present their fund strategy and terms to LPs. LPs will discuss if they are willing to invest and negotiate their terms. Fees, carries, most favored nation clauses, splits and hurdles will be debated.
Sherri Caplan, Shareholder, Greenberg Traurig, LLP
LPs (3 LPs will consider investing in the funds)
Russ Bates, Head of the Americas, Real Estate Multi-Manager, Aviva Investors
Roy Schneiderman, Principal, Bard Consulting
Amit Aggarwal, Investment Officer, LACERA
GPs (2-3 GPs representing the following fund types: Emerging Mid-Sized; Large Established)
Jeffrey Dritley, Managing Partner, Kearny Real Estate
Murray McCabe, Managing Partner, Montgomery Street Partners
Charles Toppino, President, Oak Pass Capital
Waterfalls, deal terms, preferred returns, control provisions and cost overruns will be the main topics under discussion as we address joint ventures from both the operator and equity provider perspective.
Daniel Stanco, Ropes & Gray LLP
Mark Potter, Founding Partner, Alcion Ventures,
Sean Armstrong, Principal, Westport Capital Partners LLC
The Operating Partners
Pete Kutzer, Managing Partner, Edgewood Realty Partners, LLC
Patrick Galvin, Chief Admin. Officer & General Counsel, Starwood CPG Operations LLC
Against a backdrop of gateway market prices showing little sign of abating and fears over pricing bubbles, many secondary and tertiary markets are exhibiting growing populations and above-average job growth. So, it’s no surprise that more CRE capital is now going into secondary and tertiary markets. However, after many poor investment decisions pre-crash, investors today are rightfully exhibiting greater caution.
- What is the business case – in today’s volatile climate - for investing in riskier markets vs. investing in riskier assets in the best markets?
- Secondary/tertiary market pricing/valuations today vs. pre-crash
- How to know which secondary/tertiary markets are worth the risk?
- Comparing opportunities/risks in early vs. late booming markets
- What are the asset types to watch, and which to avoid, in secondary/tertiary markets?
- Due diligence considerations specific to secondary/tertiary markets vs. primary markets
- Investor/lender perceptions and expectations: Getting sign-off
- Exit strategy considerations
- What can we learn from past cycles and past mistakes?
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*Entire Agreement. These terms (including any terms incorporated by reference in these terms), constitute the entire agreement between you and us with respect to your access to and use of the website or receipt of any service and supersede all prior agreements, negotiations and discussions between you and us relating to the same.
*Law and Jurisdiction. Where you visit, register and/or subscribe to a this site or related service (as indicated on this website or otherwise notified to you), these terms (and any dispute or claim arising out of or in connection with these terms, including non-contractual disputes or claims), to the maximum extent permissible under the law of the territory that you are located in, will be governed by the laws of the State of New York. Any action to enforce these terms shall be brought in a federal court or a state court located in the state of New York, county of New York, and you agree to submit yourself to the personal jurisdiction of those courts in any such action.
*Force Majeure. We shall not be deemed to be in breach of these Terms by reason of any delay in performing, or any failure to perform any service or our obligations in relation to these Terms, if the delay or failure was due to any cause beyond our reasonable control, including but not limited to acts of God, explosions, floods, fire or accident, war or threat of war, terrorism or threat of terrorism, sabotage, civil disturbance, epidemics, prohibitions or measures of any kind on the part of any governmental, parliamentary or local authority, import or export regulations or embargoes, or industrial actions or trade disputes (whether involving our employees or of third parties).
*Severability. If any provision of these Terms is found to be wholly or partially invalid, void or unenforceable by any court having competent jurisdiction or by virtue of any legislation or any other reason, that provision shall be invalid, void or unenforceable to that extent only and no further and the validity and enforceability of the remaining provisions of these Terms shall not be affected.
*Notices. Any notice given pursuant to these Terms shall be made by email or first class post, in the case of you, to the address provided on your registration form and, in the case of us, to the address posted on the website or otherwise notified to you in relation to any relevant service. Any such notice shall be deemed to have arrived if sent by post within three (3) days of posting and if sent by email at the time of transmission.
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