- Tuesday, January 21st, 2014
- Wednesday, January 22nd, 2014
- Thursday, January 23rd, 2014
- Friday, January 24th, 2014
- My Agenda
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- Senior government and private sector representatives will discuss the key material issues that arise when considering how to reform federal housing finance policy and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
- Such issues include, for example, risk sharing, systemic risk, guarantee fee structuring and pricing, preservation of the TBA market, transition management, and other issues
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
- Typical ABS structures and asset classes
- Relative value of ABS as an investment and funding option
- Historical performance
- Future issuance outlook regulatory and other issues that may impact ABS
- What factors enter into a credit score?
- How has the Ability to Pay analysis affected the credit scoring model, if at all?
- How has the recession and recent credit performance affected default rates for any given score?
- How have scores migrated through the recession and more recent improvement in credit performance cycles?
- Are there segments of the population that have been performing better/worse than expected? If so, why?
- On a prospective basis, what segments of the credit population should investors be wary of?
- Typical ABCP structures
- Why ABCP?
- Past performance
- Future prospects
- Regulatory and other issues that may impact ABCP
- What will be necessary to bring back the PLS market for RMBS in necessary volume after the GSEs are reformed?
- QM/QRM and Retention isclosure
- Primary macroeconomic and mortgage risk components
- Impacts of home values and mortgage rates
- Projecting short-term and long-term trends
- Analytic tools and data sources
- Loan-level factors and deal structures
- What is an esoteric asset?
- Challenges in securitizing esoteric assets
- Challenges faced by most esoteric assets
- Challenges unique to certain esoteric assets
- Completing the deal how to navigate around the challenges; successes and failures
- Future of esoteric assets
- Which esoteric ABS classes are appealing to investors, and why?
- Which esoteric ABS classes are merely trends and which are here to stay?
- Litigation; how must it be ended to let the new market prosper?
- Reps and warranties and other documentation or dispute resolution issues
- How the cover pool for a transaction is selected and its functions
- Review of performance triggers
- Which countries and issuers saw the greatest growth in covered bond deal volumes?
- Which countries are poised for more expansive issuance in coming years?
- Developments in the regulations
- Review of the current players in dollardenominated covered bond issuance
- Covered bond treatment under Basel III (liquidity coverage ratio) and other regulatory frameworks
- As covered bond returns continue to improve, just how will investors react and improve demand for new issuance?
- Why yield-thirsty investors continue to grow their interest in this asset class, and a look ahead at 2014 projected capital market issuance
- What must change in the U.S. regulatory landscape to facilitate domestic covered bond deals?
- Prospects of the first U.S.-based covered bond transaction occurring in 6-, 9-, 12- months
- General market trends for both CLOs and Leveraged Loans
- Where we are post-crisis (CLO 2.0) vs.. pre-crisis (CLO 1.0) from a standpoint of manager access to the market (number of managers that have issued 2.0 deals)
- Manager consolidation
- Loan issuance volume
- New-money issuance/LBO activity
- Maturity wall issues
- The role of the Total Return Swap
- Status and outlook on GSE reform legislation
- Status and outlook on FHA reform legislation
- Update on MHA/HARP related initiatives
- Dodd/Frank/CFPB progress
- Policies which support / hinder private market development
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
- Review and outlook on key housing and other major economic indicators
- Effect of Fed's tapering on the economic recovery rate
- Rising interest rates and their impact on consumer spending/saving
- Healthcare costs and impact of reforms on the individual consumer
- Impact of ongoing debt issues for European Union countries
- Impact of the bipartisan Budget deal on the economy
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
Amy Crews Cutts
- Review and analysis of latest/finalized CFPB servicer requirements
- Servicing transfer market and valuations
- Industry consolidation/divesting
- Costs of doing business
- Shifts in loss mitigation strategies
- Monetary policy views
- Rate impact on: Mortgage apps, originations, home sales, car prices, lease market, student loans
- FX market (rates impact on viability of Basis swap)
- What markets are recovering faster and how does this impact ABS? Are subprime and lease benefiting?
- Debt ceiling and Fed tapering
- Consumer delinquency outlook
- Does the US mortgage market need non-agency RMBS?
- Non-agency RMBS market and GSE reform: what has to come first?
- What are the major road blocks? Standardization, risk retention, and QM/QRM Issues
- Common Securitization Platform: Government involvement in non-agency RMBS market
- RMBS 3.0: What should investors and issuers do to restore the market
- Is critical mass necessary? How can it be achieved?
- Can ABS spreads return to record-tight levels?
- In what sectors do we see material spread tightening? What sectors offer out performance?
- What are the market downside risks, and can they be hedged?
- How will legislation and regulation impact consumer ABS in 2014?
- ABS liquidity and the expected impact of tapering
- Breadth and depth of investor participation in the sector
- Outlook and effects of TRACE
- Outlook for esoteric and subordinate spreads and activity
- Goals and Burdens of Risk Retention
- Principal Based Rules and Process for Exemptive Relief
- CMBS: B-piece Retention Option
- Fair Value and Cash Flow Projections
- Representative Sample and Participation Interest Retention Options
- Potential for Unintended Consequences
- Review of recent market trends
- Trade ideas and fundamental views
- Supply/demand technicals
- Investor patterns and valuations
- Should 2013 deal structures concern investors?
- Does the regulatory environment continue to challenge investor interest in RMBS?
- What have we learned since the credit crisis and recession of 2008/2009?
- What are the recent market and regulatory trends that make ABS funding more or less attractive as a funding source?
- Impact of recent regulatory trends
- As the subprime share of the auto loan and ABS markets has grown in recent years, are there any cross-over lessons from other asset classes (e.g. subprime RMBS) that can be useful in looking at this sector?
- Is the increase in subprime issuances as a share of the auto ABS market a positive trend overall or not? How do subprime issuers and investors see this trend?
- What are issuers doing differently in terms of disclosure? Are issuers meaningfully changing their practices in response to regulatory mandates, and do investors care? Focus on Rule 193 and Section 15G, and disclosure of exceptions from underwriting criteria. Are any investors actually looking at what issuers are disclosing?
- Sales of residual interests: what has been the trend since the adoption of the new FDIC rules?
- Will risk retention rules effectively mean that there is no more possibility of off-balancesheet treatment?
- Swap Clearing Requirements
- Idiosyncratic terms to clear or not to clear?
- Operational concerns for DCOs
- Will multiple trading platforms fragment iquidity?
- Swap Margin Requirements
- Can and how do securitization trusts post collateral?
- Rating Agency concerns
- Role of Trustees
- Alternatives reserve accounts, caps
- Cross Border application of swap rules: a definitive statement?
- Impact of expanded definition of U.S. Person on Funds
- Understanding de minimis threshold calculations
- Logistics of Substitute Compliance Determinations
- Impact of delayed EU derivative rules / key aspects for harmonization
- Implications of new risk based capital rules on ABS
- Risk Retention and its concerns
- What are the likely results of the new Liquidity Coverage Ratio
- What's going on in accounting?
- Breakout Risk Based Capital
- How do the new formulas work: SFA, SSFA, etc.
- What are the implications of the proposed LCR?
- What types of assets are favored by the new Risk Based Capital Rules?
- Comparison of EU and US Rules.
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
- Outlook for interest rates and ABS spreads
- With spreads tightening to pre-crisis levels and a shrinking investor base, who will buy these bonds at this level going forward?
- What sector(s) still offer an upside?
- Can new supply satiate investors appetite for yield?
- Assessing the relative value of investing in whole mortgages vs. AAA RMBS: liquidity, Solvency II and yield considerations
- View of the European Data Warehouse
- Emerging ABS markets: assets of interest, and why?
- Relative attractiveness of ABS versus other IG sectors
- Actively Managing the Structured Finance Portfolio
- Factors impacting investors asset allocation strategy
- How are investors generating sufficient yields in a challenging interest rate environment?
- Compare and contrast investor strategies: the bank investor versus the asset manager
SESSION POLL RESULTS FOR THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
- Overview of the global policy response to perceived deficiencies in securitization: risk retention; loan level data disclosure; credit rating agency regulation; capital rules
- Current and potential "frictions" in the regulatory response between the US the EU and other jurisdictions: what is holding the market back?
- The global role and regulation of credit rating agencies
- The issuer's perspective on the global regulatory environment for securitization
- Suggestions to global regulators for a constructive way forward
- Risk-retention, conflicts of interest, and the Volcker Rule
- Has the progression of regulatory reform, focused on more traditional asset-backed securities, actually created a more favorable playing field for esoteric ABS securities?
- Example asset and whether they currently do, or could, fall outside the scope of some or all of the more onerous new regulatory regimes (e.g. risk-retention, conflicts of interest, revised Reg AB)
- Will this lead to greater issuance and/or demand in the selected markets?
- Today's US market for CLOs and leveraged loans
- Economic variables: corporate credit, interest rates, liquidity
- Anticipated regulatory impacts: Volcker, Risk Retention and beyond
- Investor trends : AAA, mezz, equity
- Portfolio manager roles
- Interim financings/warehousings
- Forecasts for 2014- 2015
Steven T. Kolyer
- State of the Market
- 2012 - 2013 Activity
- FFELP Transactions
- Refinancing Old Trusts
- Refinancing Straight- A Funding
- Secondary Market Acquisitions
- Private Credit Transactions
- Regulatory Update
- Challenges Facing the Market
- Diminishing FFELP Volume
- Why is the Private Credit Market Not Larger Given the Need for this Product?
- Legal and Regulatory Concerns
- Future of SLABS
- Where is the Market Headed?
- What is the Role of the Private Sector?
- Will FFELP Return and, if so, in What Form?
- Solar as a securitizable asset class / market update
- SAPC / SEFA mission and general update
- SEFA rating agency mock filing update
- Asset Performance: Is current performance sustainable
- C/O and delinquencies at historical lows
- MPR continue to rise to all-time historical levels
- Consumer confidence, unemployment and & fiscal cliff II impact on performance and outstandings
- Issuance volume:
- Whats the incentive
- 2014 & 2015 $35 billion maturing each year (2013 $20 billion)
- Liquidity impact to investors
- Impact of increased regulation: Cost of compliance
- Peer-to-peer lending: potential impact on card pricing
- Why public rather than Rule 144A or 3a-2 ?
- Advantages of doing so vs. other executions
- SEC review process, summary of Canadian CB Legislation, and recent changes under CMHC (i.e. collateral eligibility)
- How potential developments (regulatory, etc.) might impact structures going forward (B-III, Solvency II, Reg AB II, etc)
- General regulatory overview:
- U.S. CLO Regulations
- FDIC Assessment
- Risk Retention
- Basel III
- Volcker Rule
- Others: TRACE, Rating Agency Reform (Franken Amendment)
- U.S. Loan market regulations
- Leveraged lending guidance
- European regulatory update
- Euro Risk Retention (CRD 122a)
- Solvency II
- AIFMD European Hedge Fund Regulations
- Global: Basel III
- Regulatory impact on buyer base, managers, specific types of investors, and traders
Jerry van Koolbergen
- Difficulties in bondholder communication and possible solutions
- What to expect in post-deal surveillance: trustee, rating agency and issuer responsibilities
- Role for other parties in post-deal surveillance
- Improving investor support
- Restructuring and amendments the role of the trustee
- Deal Analysis key risks
- Relative value across other ABS and/or other Fixed Income sectors
- Rating agency participation
- Investor depth
- Subordinate offerings (below single-A)
- The overall landscape in aircraft securitization
- Investors in the sector
- The effect of new aircraft on the market
- The lessors use of securitization
- Parts / engines securitization; who is doing it and why?
- Emerging market structures
- Legal perspective the regulatory issues facing the ABCP market
- Banker perspective changes to structures
- Issuer perspective what do the changes mean for issuers is ABCP still a viable product?
- Investor perspective Money market funds & large exposure issues
- Description of alternative mortgage investments including NPLs/RPRs, servicing advances, excess servicing, and risk sharing and REO to Rental.
- Depth and breadth of market
- Return metrics and valuation methods
- Outlook for issuance
- QM and non-QM securitizations
- Rating Agency Perspective
- Legal / Developer / Tax-Equity
- Investor / Markets / Investment Banking
- Sweet spot in the debt stack
- Assessing if a manager is truly "debt friendly"
- Intra-class issues amongst debt tranches
- Differences between CLO 1.0 and 2.0
- Key risks of investing in CLO debt
- Drivers of the global trade and commodity securitization market
- Main characteristics of trade and commodity securitization
- Overview of recent transactions and trends
- Key legal, regulatory and credit challenges and risks affecting this market
- Direction of the market; expectations for 2014
- Other examples of esoteric ABS that are not yet "mainstream"
- Attributes necessary to make assets appropriate for the securitization market
- Pending transactions
- Case study: specific types of esoteric ABS and the business case for securitizing the particular asset
- Structural and legal issues to be resolved, and how the resulting structure responds to those issues
- Tobacco legal fees and tobacco escrow securitization
- Franchise royalty and whole business securitization
- Music/film copyright royalty securitization
- Patent/trademark royalty securitization
- Energy efficiency securitization
- Analysis of the size of the market and trend forecasting
- Evaluation of the evolving legal structures used by funds and the corresponding impact on lender collateral packages
- Changes in investor constituencies and typical pools
- Challenges associated with LPA provisions in the middle market private equity context
- Regulatory and legal challenges impacting the market
- Forecasting of emerging issues and opportunities
- Review of top takeaways from the conference panels
- Recap of advisements and recommendations
- Results of conference participant feedback
- Best quotes heard
- How well did we predict ABS volume in 2013? What is the plan for 2014?
- New deal structures or same old ones?
- Introduction to Structured Settlements
- Introduction to Insurance-Linked Securities
- Challenges in Securitizing Structured Settlements and ILS
- Completing the Deal-How to Navigate Around the Challenges; Successes and Failures
- Future of Structured Settlements and ILS
Luisa De Gaetano
- Cost of valuation services and data analytics: Is it a barrier affecting small and mid-sized investors
- Performance of traditional valuation methodologies since the crisis
- Dynamics of provider-user relationships affected by market disruptions?
- Opportunities and challenges presented by updated data dissemination services through TRACE?
- What is needed to improve valuation techniques? Have there been any notable innovations?
- How can the timeliness of price fluctuation reporting be improved?
- Limited access to consistent info flow and the impact on execution
- Lack of consistency in data and reassessing the reliability of underlying models
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