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Hear from Beth Ann Bovino, Chief US Economist at S&P Global Ratings on her economic outlook for the US financial markets. This Keynote will also feature a fireside chat led by Amanda Pullinger, CEO of 100 Women in Finance, covering the importance of Women in finance and leadership roles and the impacts of post-pandemic trends on women in the workforce.
Beth Ann Bovino
- Of the five most talked about risks – inflation, supply chain, labor pressure, rising rates, and pandemic uncertainty – which one will have the greatest frequency vs. magnitude vs. longevity?
- Rates and Inflation impact on the macro credit environment
- Performance expectations given macro risks, and outlook for issuance (Refi, Reset, New Issue), and up/downgrades
- Where are we in the cycle? When will defaults come back to life?
- Review of CLO performance in COVID: CLO underlying collaterals, CLO OC tests, distressed credits, manager impact and booming equity market
- How has the investor base evolved over the past couple of years?
- How has the continued involvement of manager-equity funds changed the dynamic in the U.S. issuance, especially in regard to the involvement of investors less suited to invest on their own?
- How will the re-entry of Japanese banks impact the market?
- Fighting inertia – how to break long-standing logjams and bring innovation to the fore in CLO market
- Is ESG a viable strategy for CLOs? Why has the US market been slower to adapt then Europe?
- Standardized tools for analysis of ESG in a CLO portfolio and Navigating ESG Policy Reporting
- What are manager and investor policies around ESG? How to effectively manage positive and negative screening, and other key ESG metrics considered when constructing a portfolio.
- Transparency in disclosure and reporting for ESG – How is this being managed and what is needed to create further transparency in ESG?
- What does ESG integration mean for underlying asset composition and legacy assets? How will this affect refinancing and resets?
- How does this affect bringing credit into the market? When you apply an ESG label to a corporate, do you look at the supply chain? How far along the chain needs evaluated?
- Rating agency and analytical approaches to ESG measurement and integration
- CLO manager certification for ESG and how it could make the manager more attractive
- SOFR Transitions- implications to CLOs legacy, current holdings, CSA/approach, state of loan market issuance
- How is the transition process going? And how is the market responding to its impacts? E.g. CLO Arbitrage, potential basis mismatch.
- If historical basis between LIBOR SOFR has been the ARRC recommended CSA, then why is the market still stuck on 10/15/25? And how will loans trade when the basis is near ARRC levels?
- How will this new benchmark behave in a Fed tightening/easing environment
- Do other fixed rate alternatives provide more carry for income buyers
- What other regulatory concerns are top of mind right now, and what hurdles are there to overcome? What has the new administration meant for the CLO market: Volcker, risk retention, a bullish year for ESG?
Mary Kathryn Lee
- Having overcame the short term pause on MM CLOs due to SOFR pricing adjustments, what is the outlook for future MM transactions and deal pipeline?
- How will the lack of regulatory push to move underlying asset direct lending funds from LIBOR impact the MM space? What is the right SOFR metric for MM?
- How are BSL investors viewing the MM space? Is favourable pricing, low default rates, and interest rate floors on managed and static pools making the MM space more attractive for investors? How can investors overcome the lack of transparency on the underlying collateral when assessing where to invest?
- Have we passed spread adjustment tensions between debt and equity, lessening volatility for both BSL and MM CLOs?
- Are issues with the MM space exacerbated by origination mechanics and balance sheet stipulations compared to BSL?
- Rates are rising as financial markets declare victory over COVID, but are small businesses prepared to pay more to borrow?
- Are we seeing a convergence between public and private markets?
- How are CLO managers viewing the current market? Where have we come from and where we are headed?
- H2/2023 expectations and outlook on fundamentals & technicals - How are Managers positioning their portfolio?
- Which management styles/strategies worked best through COVID (eg active trading/wait & see approach)?
- What are the key drivers/levers to equity returns (par build, liability costs, etc.)?
- How have different CLO sectors changes as a result of the pandemic? And what is the expected recovery for the likes of Travel and Leisure, Retail, Office Space Rental, etc as underlying assets for CLO portfolios? Are defaults expected as a result of lessening federal support?
- How are managers working with data and analytics technology to shape the CLO market? Are manager strategies being impacted by technological advancements?
- What impacts do inflation and rising rates have on technicals and fundamentals? E.g., Near term recession potential, other market fluctuations flowing through to the floating-rate safe heaven.
- State of the Leveraged Loan market- documentation, leverage, valuations, areas of concern
- Are leveraged loan lending guidelines adhered to?
- Longer term impact of loan only financing structures, and adverse selection, i.e., single-B concentrations
- Given changes to the leverage loan market, are recovery rates anticipated to remain below historical levels?
- Impact of Retail Funds competing with CLOs for Loans
- Health of the Leveraged Loan Market with M&A cycle picking up
- CLO and Lev Loans attractiveness in a rising rate environment - Where do people see value, both in loans and CLO tranches
- Have dedicated CLO equity funds created an abnormal demand for loans, fuelling cheap debt for PE firms?
- Supply and demand dynamic and impact of spreads across the capital structure
- Health of the Leveraged Loan Market with M&A cycle picking up
- Where are we in the rates cycle and what affect does this have on opportunities across equity and mezz tranches?
- Relative value vs other asset classes (e.g., CMBS, IG Corps)
- What Lies Ahead for CLOs and CLO Managers?
- Key considerations from the Investor and the Issuer perspectives
- Current Manager Landscape
- New vs Seasoned Mangers – by the data
- Manager Tiering – tiering defined and tiering migration
- New Managers – drivers of entrance and challenges to entrants
- Manager consolidation and the implication for number of managers
- Manager Style – how to define it and how important/consistent is it
- Beyond Performance –
- Secondary markets
- What are the main factors affecting the investor and manager landscape in the middle market space?
- Beyond the thicker Triple B’s, what other factors are causing insurance investors to allocate further capital in MM CLOs? A
- What opportunities and threats exist in this space, and are any specific to middle market CLOs? I.e., new loan products, diversification through specific industries vs. transparency and performance data
- Is the boom in MM issuance sustainable? What can be done to foster growth in this sector of the market?
- Beyond SME lending: Are larger cap companies starting to tap private credit markets?
- CLO equity returns – what to expect? Is there a tug of war happening between diminishing benefit of Libor floors and pressure on interest coverage ratios vs. low default environment?
- Is there an increased call risk in CLO equity? What strategies are being deployed here? i.e., Buy and hold vs. buy and call
- Is CLO equity the best consensus trade in 2022? What are the risks and what are the investment strategies around it?
- SOFR and CLO equity: What is the drag on equity returns due to mismatch? What is the most prevalent transition language in CLO equity docs, and what % of CLO equity would suffer from the hard-wired 26 bps language?
- Impact of SOFR-LIBOR basis on CLO portfolios and equity distributions – E.g. How much of the switch will impact equity returns when the portfolio is at 25, 50 and 75 % SOFR?
- How women are dominating the ranks of the CLO and leveraged loan market and the ripple effect on performance
- How better performing are diverse teams, and are we seeing increased DE&I terms factoring into transactions as a result of a post-pandemic focus on ESG?
- How are gender viewpoints differentiated and what factors are taken into consideration? How does this ultimately impact performance?
- 2021/22 performance evaluation for mezzanine and equity.
- Is a secondary trader going to have better liquidity? Does this overlap with the perception of tiering?
- Trading impact and experiences, default projections, tranche downgrades, manager tiering, liquidity challenges, cut off cashflows and opportunities for refinancing
- AMR technology and its impacts on traditional refinancing options, spreads, and manager/arranger relationships
- Market outlook amid a distressed commercial real estate market
- Static vs Managed, and other key structural trends
- What are the key factors driving CRE CLO issuance, and what factors will most affect CRE CLO market activity over the coming year? E.g., SOFR Transition, Relative Value to other asset classes, macro real estate markets, rising rates, other black swans?
- Are there signs of a maturing market, or is there still room for external growth? What models exist for new entrants, and how much more flexibility do managed structures provide?
- How are investors viewing relative value for CRE CLOs across the product spectrum, activity between the primary and secondary market? What asset types are favourable to investors?
- What main themes and trends are appearing in 2022 for CLO structures? Are we seeing post-pandemic structural enhancements emerge that favour certain transaction participants?
- Longer term impact of loan only financing structures, and adverse selection, i.e., single-B concentrations
- Balance sheet CLOs and credit risk transfer – How are market players utilising this part of the toolkit for dealing with capital requirements, internationally originated loans, access to term funding, etc.
- Innovations in CLOs – Will 2022 finally be the year we see a more robust project finance and infrastructure CLO pipeline given further federal investment from the Infrastructure Bill? What would it take for this product to enter the mainstream?
- How bespoke a role to multi-currency CLOs play in the market? What difficulties do they pose and what would it take for them to become more common? – Cross jurisdictional underwriting, buyer mandates, collateral diversification.
Paul St. Lawrence
- Trends in the underlying document terms for CLOs.
- What are the key areas of concerns for investors or are we seeing more flexibility emerging post-pandemic? Are certain transaction participants favoured in document terms?
- What’s the strategy for sectors when the protections go wrong? Current trends in collateral and default protection
- CSA or no CSA? Benefits for loan issuance?
- Document innovation: How are CLO documents changing and does this impact equity?
- Impact of tech/AI on documentation review
- What data and analytic technology innovations are shaping the CLO market today? How are they influencing manager and investor strategies?
- How do dealers and investors use technology and data as differentiators?
- What are the problems which market participants are looking to technology to solve?
- What new technologies are on the horizon for secondary trading?
William van Hertsen
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We may also transfer personal data to third party service providers as described in this Privacy Notice which are located outside the EEA. Where we conduct these transfers, we take all steps necessary to ensure that your data is treated securely and in accordance with applicable privacy legislation, either by only sending your personal data to jurisdictions that provide an adequate degree of legal protection for your data or by imposing approved contractual terms on these third parties.
We have a data retention policy that ensures we don’t use or store your personal data for longer than necessary. We consider the following issues to determine retention periods:
- Guidance from the UK Information Commissioner or other regulatory agency, or industry best practice recommendations;
- The business rationale for collection and expiry of the purpose for which personal data was collected;
- Our ongoing ability to ensure the accuracy of the data; and
- Legal and regulatory requirements.
We may occasionally need to keep personal data for either shorter or longer periods than specified in our retention policy. In such circumstances, application of the retention period to the data will be temporarily suspended. The suspension of an applicable retention period will be carried out in a manner that respects the rights and interests of all persons concerned.
You can use our Preference Centre to select the topics that are of interest to you so that we can send you publications and information about our products and services that are especially relevant to you. You can also choose the channels we use to contact you (email, phone, post, etc.) and can also opt-out of receiving marketing communications.
You have certain rights in relation to your personal data which include the following:
Access & Portability
You may request access to any personal data of yours for which Euromoney is responsible as controller. Unless there are legal or regulatory reasons for not doing so, we will confirm whether we process any of your personal data and if we do, we will provide you with the following information: the purposes of the processing, the categories of personal data, any recipients of your personal data, the applicable retention period and the data source. Copies of your personal data will be made available to you in a structured, machine-readable format.
You may also request that we transfer the personal data that you have submitted to us, to another controller, where it is technically feasible for us to do so.
If you have consented to our processing of your personal data, or if we are processing your personal data in order to fulfil our contractual obligations to you, then you can submit a request that we transfer your personal data to another data controller.
Rectification, Restriction, Objection
You have the right to request that Euromoney rectify any errors in the personal data that we process. In some circumstances, you may also be able to ask for the erasure of personal data, and/or request that the processing of your personal data be restricted. You may also object to the processing of your personal data for sales or marketing purposes.
How to Exercise Your Rights
To exercise any of these rights, please contact us by post or email at the following addresses:
Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC
8 Bouverie Street
London, EC4Y 8AX
Web form: Complete Subject Data Request Form
We may need to check your identity prior to processing a request.
Euromoney will do our best to respond to any questions and address any of your concerns. You are also able to register any complaints regarding the processing of your personal data directly with the UK Information Commissioner.
Euromoney is committed to keeping your personal data secure and we will take appropriate technical and organisational measures to protect your personal data from loss, unauthorised use, disclosure or destruction. Although we do our best to protect your personal data, we cannot guarantee that any transmission of data is without risk. We have therefore implemented information security policies and rules, staff training on information security, and technical measures to ensure the integrity of data that we have under our control.
All our employees, contractors and data processors (i.e. those third parties that process personal data on our behalf) are required to keep such data confidential and not to use it for any purpose other than the performance of services we have requested.
Our site may contain links to other websites – including, for example, providers of payment processing services. Euromoney is not responsible for the privacy and data collection practices of third party sites and we therefore recommend that you review the privacy policies and terms of service of each site you visit.
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